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HWRF 96-hour (4-day) forecast for Hurricane Katrina heading for New Orleans in 2005. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model is a specialized version of the weather research and forecasting model and is used to forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. The model was developed by the National Oceanic and ...
The NHC official forecast is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over Florida. A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. [1]
A version of WRF-NMM tailored for hurricane forecasting, HWRF (hurricane weather research and forecasting), became operational in 2007. [9] In 2009, a polar optimized WRF was released through the Byrd Polar Research Center at the Ohio State University. [10]
Cloud microphysics are the physical processes that describe the growth, decay, and fallout of precipitation particles. In terms of models, cloud microphysics occur on a scale smaller than the grid-scale of the model and have to be parameterized. [2] Hurricane track forecasts have been getting better in recent years.
Beginning in 2007, the NCEP Hurricane-WRF became available to help predict rainfall from tropical cyclones. Recent verification shows that both the European ECMWF forecast model and North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) show a low bias with heavier rainfall amounts within tropical cyclones.
Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
Top: WRF model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. Bottom: The spread of NHC multi-model ensemble forecast. During 1972, the first model to forecast storm surge along the continental shelf was developed, known as the Special Program to List the Amplitude of Surges from Hurricanes (SPLASH). [65]
The second Hurricane Alice in 1954 was the latest forming tropical storm and hurricane, reaching these intensities on December 30 and 31, respectively. Hurricane Alice and Tropical Storm Zeta were the only two storms to exist in two calendar years – the former from 1954 to 1955 and the latter from 2005 to 2006. [ 14 ]
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