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v. t. e. In probability theory, the expected value (also called expectation, expectancy, expectation operator, mathematical expectation, mean, expectation value, or first moment) is a generalization of the weighted average. Informally, the expected value is the mean of the possible values a random variable can take, weighted by the probability ...
Conditional expectation. In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can ...
The problem of points, also called the problem of division of the stakes, is a classical problem in probability theory. One of the famous problems that motivated the beginnings of modern probability theory in the 17th century, it led Blaise Pascal to the first explicit reasoning about what today is known as an expected value .
Law of total expectation. The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations[2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same ...
Step 7 states that the expected value in B = 1/2(2A + A/2). It is pointed out that the 'A' in the first part of the formula is the expected value, given that envelope A contains less than envelope B, but the 'A', in the second part of the formula is the expected value in A, given that envelope A contains more than envelope B.
Definition. The geometric distribution is the discrete probability distribution that describes when the first success in an infinite sequence of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials occurs. Its probability mass function depends on its parameterization and support.
Maximum likelihood estimation. In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable.
This fact is the basis of a hypothesis test, a "proportion z-test", for the value of p using x/n, the sample proportion and estimator of p, in a common test statistic. [35] For example, suppose one randomly samples n people out of a large population and ask them whether they agree with a certain statement. The proportion of people who agree ...