It looks like luxury retail is getting ready for a comeback. Shoppers in enviable tax brackets are doing a better job of prying their wallets open, at least if you can believe their stock prices. Tiffany, Saks and Nordstrom all showed signs of progress heading into Black Friday, meaning that investors were willing to bet on the wealthy.

Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, explained to USA Today, "We're resting our (upbeat outlook) on the upper-income consumer, who seems to be holding up pretty well." This group, he continued, "is where the vast majority of spending in this country is done."

Research firm Penn Schoen Berland weighed in with agreement: "Well-to-do Americans are feeling much less of a crunch." Households with incomes of greater than $70,000 a year, the firm found, planned to amp up their holiday spending by 27 percent this year. Those with incomes below $40,000 are cutting their holiday joy by 14 percent.

While the bargain hunters turn to the discount retailers, which are expected to do well this year, look for the higher-income consumers to spend more at places like Williams-Sonoma and other mid-range to upscale retail establishments.

So, with deeper pockets starting to open this year, it looks like the wealthy will turn last year's holiday bust around. A good holiday season for Saks shows that those with the bucks are starting to open up, and recoveries start at the top.

Yesterday, Macy's announced a strategic alliance agreement with the Ellen Tracy owner, Brand Matter LLC, and its sportswear licensee, RVC Enterprises. Under the terms of the agreement, Macy's will be the exclusive department store retailer of Ellen Tracy branded women's sportswear, beginning in March 2010.

Macy's will offer its customers an exclusive array of Ellen Tracy better sportswear focused on modern, related separates. This will include jackets, shirts, pants, sweaters, woven tops, knit tops and bottoms. Price points, for example, will be in the range of $99 to $149 for jackets and $50 to $99 for pants.

The exclusive sportswear will launch in more than 100 Macy's stores and online at macys.com with plans for additional rollout over time to additional stores. The launch will include new Ellen Tracy shops in Macy's largest flagship stores, including Herald Square in New York, Union Square in San Francisco, State Street in Chicago and Dadeland in Miami. The two companies will work closely together on new ventures and brand extensions for the future.

Ellen Tracy is joining other exclusive brands at Macy's, including Tommy Hilfiger, Martha Stewart Collection, Rachel Rachel Roy and Donald Trump.

While fans of the Ellen Tracy have something to cheer about with the Macy's deal, some confusion has been caused by an Chapter 7 involuntary bankruptcy petition filed against Ellen Tracy LLC , which was approved by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York today. The petition was filed by three creditors seeking nearly $4 million in claims. The creditors were manufacturers of Ellen Tracy products.

The entity that is being forced into bankruptcy, Ellen Tracy LLC, is a former licensee of the Ellen Tracy name which ceased its operations some time ago. It has nothing to do with the brand anymore. Brand Matter LLC, on the other hand, is the entity that owns, manages, markets and licenses the intellectual property of Ellen Tracy.

The jewelry business is bracing itself for a rough couple of years. The results of the JCK survey of the jewelry industry show that more than half of the businesses in the North American jewelry industry have already been affected by the recession and most expect it to get worse over the next couple years before it gets better. Many are buying less new inventory and lowering prices. Jewelry retailers are being hit from both sides, squeezed by lower sales and by an increased difficulty in getting loans or credit to keep their businesses afloat. Some are sending back jewelry to the manufacturers sending ripples of distress around the industry. As a potential remedy, most jewelers are focusing on customer service, promotions and incentives to keep customers coming in.

The news isn't good for luxury department stores lately. Both Neiman Marcus and Saks have reported that same-store sales fell by double digits last month, numbers that are, as the Dallas Morning News Reports, reminiscent of the post-9/11 declines in 2001 and 2002. Neiman Marcus had a drop of 12.9 percent last month (Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman stores had a 15.8 percent drop but the Neiman Marcus Direct catalog and online business had a 5.3 percent increase). Saks saw same-store sales fall by 10.9 percent. Both companies also have said they don't expect things to get any better soon, they are predicting weaker sales for the rest of the year. Nordstrom is also suffering with a 9.6 percent decline in September same-store sales. The good news for consumers is that sales will start earlier than usual and discounts will be deeper during the upcoming holiday season. For these three stores especially, it is the return shopper that will sustain them. I predict that these loyal customers will most assiduously courted by the stores with free gifts, deep discounts and other enticements over the coming months so now might be a good time to sign-up for their email alert lists.

We are still a few months away from the holiday season but retailers are already wringing their hands. With the stock market slumping, higher food and gas prices and the unsteady real estate situation, predictions for a slim Christmas season abound. Deloitte LLP is saying that retailer should expect a holiday sales increase of 2.5 to 3% over 2007 during the November to January period, which is less than last year's 3.4 percent which was also relatively low overall. Retailers will likely be rolling out all sorts of temptations from pop-up stores and special deals to the continued promotion of all things "green."

So far, the high-end luxury market has been a bright spot for retailers during this extended economic crunch but recent stock market uncertainty may give even the biggest spenders a case of the Scrooges.

Talbots, the preppy store with the red door, is fighting for relevance in the fashion market. The chain, which has always focused on classic fashion that skews a bit older, is looking to stay afloat at a time when retailers are facing major challenges. WWD reports on the company's three-year program. Talbots is planning to stay the course in terms of their take on classic clothing but they will also have an increased focus on large sizes offering both "boutiques" of large size offerings in their regular stores and additional Talbons Woman stores. They will also launch a premium outlet concept this year. The store has shut down their men's and children's divisions honing their focus on women's fashion.

It's an uphill climb for Talbots, which also owns the J. Jill brand. J. Jill generally attracts customers in their late forties and the Talbots average customer is in their fifties. Part of the challenge it seems is that younger women aren't turning to Talbots as they age. I think that there has been a fundamental shift in which women in their 30s and 40s find themselves to still be interested in fashion and current styles and continue to be drawn to department stores which offer clothing from a wide variety of current designers.

Women love to shop...it's like a law of nature or something. But it's no secret that lately the economy has been slowing down and the luxury market has been taking a hit -- high-income women may still love shopping but they're doing it a lot less. So how do luxury retailers plan to weather this storm? By making their products so compelling and irresistible that other purchases are put on hold to make room. High-end shoppers on a budget are not likely to trade down and start shopping at cheaper retailers, but instead they just become choosier with what they buy. In other words they may be buying less, but they're not stopping completely. So that awesome new handbag may have to yell a little louder to get attention, but it can still call your name like it always did.

More bad news for the U.S. luxury department stores. WWD has the list of sales figures for December and they aren't pretty. Same-store sales declined 5.4 percent on average for the department store sector with a total of 6.5 percent lost year over year. The luxury retailers were hit hardest, Nordstrom, down 4 percent, Neiman Marcus down 2.9 percent, Macy's fell 7.9 percent and Sak's eked out a .08 percent gain. Out of the 40 retailers WWD tracked, 27 reported negative same-stores sales for the month. The mid-range departments stores were hit too, J.C. Penney fell 7.9 percent and Kohl's declined 0.7 percent. Discount stores did better with Wal-Mart up 2.6 percent and Target up 5 percent. Specialty stores dipped too (3 percent) but overall it was the department stores that suffered the most with a 6.3 percent decline overall. I wonder if the fact that the Christmas holiday season has turned into more of a gadget frenzy and less of a clothing holiday is partly behind this or if this is just more fall out as the masstige market, once fueled by the aspirational shopper, continues to decline.

No (before you get too excited), there won't be a car dealership with a showroom full of gorgeous Lamborghini's available for window shopping on a Saturday afternoon. There just might be, however, a Lamborghini retail store selling brand items -- so you can have your own more affordable piece of the famous Italian name.

At this point it's just an idea in the works, as Lamborghini is looking for new ways to boost public awareness of its exclusive brand. Previously they've hooked up with Versace and Nokia for different promotions, and now are considering a chain of merchandise stores as part of a bigger plan for controlled growth. Don't look for a sudden flood of Lamborghini's in your neighborhood though, because the newest $170,000+ Gallardo Superleggera model has at least a 1 year waiting list -- and Lamborghini wants to keep it that way.

Are luxury retailers too optimistic about the opportunities in China? As the economy rapidly grows, retailers are faced with rising costs for labor and rent and a customer base that is more reluctant to purchase luxury items than in other countries. Many high end brands - Cartier, Louis Vuitton, Chanel and Hermès, to name but a few - are all in competition for the same small segment of the population. While that doesn't sound so different from the way the retailers operate in other parts of the world, there is on big difference. In China, consumers are primarily interested in things that are "obvious status symbols," with easily visible logos from only the top brand, so many companies, even big name ones, are barely breaking even after years in the country.

But the segment of the population that can afford luxury is growing and as the country moves more towards a market economy, they grow more willing to purchase such goods. The lesson to retailers? Start small and learn the market. It's probably only a matter of time before more consumers start to want to add some luxury to their lives.

WWD has a piece on the new move by  Neiman Marcus Group to capture a younger demographic. Their new Cusp stores are smaller, hipper stores designed to lure those who might regard the traditional Neiman's as a bit staid.
The four pilot cusp stores will be launched in Tyson's Corner in McLean, Va.,  Century City in Los Angeles, Georgetown and an unnamed location to be determined later. Cusp will have a more contemporary look and feel with fashion, accessories, beauty products and CDs and books. The article says that the stores will be decorated with a mixture of flea-market finds and natural elements (hmm, sounds like someone's been checking out Anthropologie).  The Cusp stores won't be branded with the Neiman Marcus name but you can use your Neiman's card there and the idea behind the store is to offer Neiman's signature service and luxury but with a fresher style.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal covered the high end shopping in airports both in the U.S. and abroad. Brands like Prada, Louis Vuitton, Sephora and Versace have stores in airports.%uFFFD While foreign airports have often ample shopping, the U.S. has been slow to catch up because U.S. shoppers haven't really expressed a big interest in airport shopping. But the trend is shifting, in May, French jeweler Cartier opened a shop at New York's JFK airport and Terminal A/B at Baltimore/Washington International has the first airport location of menswear chain Jos. A. Bank Clothiers. It's part of an overall trend of making American airports more luxurious. Recently we have seen an increase inairport spas and fine dining in U.S. airports but I wonder if Americans are really ready to shop in domestic airports (although we seem more than happy to do it overseas). The article suggests that the fact that prices for simple items like gum and water are so deeply inflated that Americans may fear they won't get a good deal in boutiques but I'm not certain that's the only reason. Do you shop in airports and if not, why not?