auctionhouses

The news out of Hong Kong has been solid so far, even if it continues the trend of meeting or beating lowered expectations. After a year of abuse, I think art collectors, gallerists and the artists themselves are eager for any good news they can claim. September was rough, according to ArtPrice, "with no room for over-bidding or risk-taking." There was only one contemporary artist, Andy Warhol, who has met expectations, so far.

But, there's room for hope: Jitish Kallah.

Kallah's only 35 years old. Born in Bombay, his work has been described by ArtPrice as "crisis-immune." The market for contemporary Indian art has been in a hard way, with the Christie's South Asian Modern & Contemporary auction last month bringing in only $5.1 million in sales – where the presale estimate was $5.6 million. Yet, Kallah's work set a new record, with "Dawn Chorus – 7" going for $320,000 and beating its high-end estimate by a factor of three.

Meanwhile, Warhol continues to deliver. A piece from his "Flower" series in 1964 went for $895,000 at Christie's in late September and a "Cambell's Soup Can (Tomato Soup)" fetched $310,000 a day later at Sotheby's.

So, we have fear and hope in October. This week, both Sotheby's and Christie's will hold auctions in the photography segment, with Phillips de Pury following next week. And, there are London sales coinciding with the Frieze Art Fair.

Let's see if art collectors are ready to dress their walls again.

A college project by artist Damien Hirst sold at auction last week for roughly $50,000. The collage, "Red Rubber Ball," sold at the low end of the estimate, which ranged up to $80,000. The piece includes a variety of found objects, such as a toy rabbit, a severed head from a doll and a dried out rose. Originally, Damien Hirst gave the piece to Julie Balmforth, who studied with him at Goldsmiths College.

The collage measures 39.5 inches by 31.5 inches and sold at Duke's of Dorchester, in Dorset. While the buyer's identity was not revealed, auctioneer Guy Schwinge would say that it went to an Irish collector "who is very excited at his purchase."

Whoever picked up the piece did buy something rare: a piece actually created with Hirst's own hands.

Hong Kong will come to life with the sound of a gavel on Tuesday, October 6, 2009. Sotheby's will be holding its Modern and Contemporary Asian Art auction, which will consist of three sessions: 20th Century Chinese Art, Modern and Contemporary Southeast Asian Paintings and Contemporary Asian Art. More than 380 works by Asian artists will come to auction, and the house expects close to $25 million in sales. Beyond bringing some new cash into Sotheby's, the auction is likely to give a sign as to the strength of the market, particularly with the November sales following shortly. Christie's will be holding its Hong Kong auctions on November 29 and 30.

In a sense, this is the one-year point for the art auction market. It was a year ago – in Hong Kong – that the world saw the effects of the financial crisis unfold in the art market. So, this bit of trivia will be front-of-mind as bidders make tough decisions on which pieces to acquire.

Sotheby's is betting big on the Contemporary Asian Art category, hoping that 190 lots will bring in $12.5 million in sales. High-profile artists are represented, including Guogiang Cai, Minjn Yue and Zhengjie Feng. There will be 130 lots in the Modern and Contemporary Southeast Asian Paintings auction, including I Nyoman Masriadi's The man from Bantul, The Monster, which is estimated at $100,000. The 20th Century Chinese Art category has a mix of safe and speculative pieces.

On November 17, 2009, several celebrity-designed luggage will go up for auction at Sotheby's. The purpose is to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the Red Cross, which is about as worthy an organization as one can imagine. In all seriousness – most people have no idea the true range of services and support that the Red Cross offers. If a soldier overseas needs to be reached because of an emergency back home, the family can call the Red Cross, which will do all the legwork. So, it's exciting to see some big names getting behind this cause.

Among the designers, however, are some artists who have been in the news lately. Annie Leibovitz, fresh from her negotiations with Art Capital Group over her $24 million loan, is finding some time for goodwill despite her financial situation. Her contribution is a red-lined backpack designed specifically for camera equipment.

Damien Hirst has also gotten in on the charitable action. The taxidermist artist who developed a name dumping maritime life in formaldehyde and affixing as many diamonds as possible to skulls has put together a tall black trunk with little drawers to hold surgical devices – which is what Hirst uses to build his ... ummmm ... stuff. This piece, in particular, should be in high demand, now that a Damien Hirst piece may actually have been touched by Damien Hirst. Last November, he laid off 17 of the 22 people involved in his pill cabinet creation.

Let's hope that these pieces – and the others brought to Sotheby's in two months – sell for fantastic prices. Art market be damned! This event is for a great organization, and every extra dollar of success will help someone out who needs it.

The Art Price Global Index suggests that the art market started to turn at the middle of the year, but it's going to take the autumn art season to confirm whether this is a false positive or the start of a new trend. Maybe the slight improvements in economic conditions are leading to more art market confidence (and spending), or perhaps they're just sick to death of being in a slump.

Art prices increased by 4.97 percent at the end of the second quarter, according to the Art Price Global Index. This comes after the index fell a total of 30 percent from the start of 2008. The collective will of art collectors, dealers and auctioneers probably won't be enough to change the art world, but it could happen at the same time. The Art Market Confidence Index gained 20 points during the second quarter, supporting the notion that we're all ready for this to be over.

It was still a tough quarter for Post-War and Contemporary artwork, which saw prices drop nine percent and four percent, respectively. But, the rest of the art market has fared better, thanks in large part to the increase in the number of affordable works brought under the gavel. So far this year, 79 percent of pieces sold for less than €5,000, up from 73 percent in 2008. Paintings and multiples declined, as well, by 31 percent and 41 percent, respectively, since 2008. With 4 percent and 5 percent price drops in the second quarter of 2009, their prices have returned to 2004 levels.

But, the summer's pretty quiet for the art market. We won't be able to confirm a recovery until the fall auction season begins. Then, we'll know if wallets are ready to be opened and stay that way for a while.

June auction revenues were off 70 percent in London this year, due in large part to job cuts and an unwillingness to guarantee lots. Even the occasional sign of hope had to be taken with a grain of salt, as lower expectations tended to magnify this year's results falsely.

Together, Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips de Pury pulled in $269.4 million in this summer's sales – off 70 percent from a year ago. In addition to the mechanical drivers of lost jobs and guarantees, the auction houses haven't had an easy time bringing high-profile, high-value pieces to market. Every event in London this summer unloaded at least two-thirds of its inventory, and success rates rose to above 88 percent at the Sotheby's and Christie's events this past June, but lingering in the background is the notion that 2009, at this point, is nothing like 2008.

To some, the current art slump is reminiscent of the early 1990s, in which a bubble in Impressionist art pricing precipitated a general decline, and nobody could get a realistic sense of a piece's value. The market took several years to recover, but it has since passed the levels of nearly 20 years ago. The Impressionists are down 68 percent this year, roughly in line with global trends, with the contemporary market off approximately 73 percent. New York fared no better than London, with contemporary sales at Sotheby's down 75 percent and Christies off 72 percent.

Art auction houses are looking to protect themselves. Lacking a local "enforcer" to find once eager collectors and shake them down for every last dollar, the likes of Sotheby's and Christie's will spend the coming fortnight managing expectations while trying to eke out a living. Atop the agenda this season is the notion of protecting price levels for Impressionist, modern and contemporary pieces.

Reality has struck.

Sotheby's has revealed a sales target of $179 million to $256 million for the spring. Last fall, the auction house hit $411 million – which is paltry compared to the $742 million take at this time last year. The showpiece now is "Baroque Egg with Bow," a sculpture by Jeff Koons, which carries a Sotheby's estimate of $6 million. While this sounds rich for today's market, the house almost quadrupled that amount with a sculpture from the same artist in 2007.

For those who haven't been keeping score, 2007 for the art world was like 1999 for technology people.

By reinforcing concern through modest estimates and carefully selected lots, the major (and smaller auction houses) are subtly positioning themselves for any unexpected support. A strong spring auction – as measured by current economic conditions – could cause global art market confidence to rebound. A turn for the worse, however, would be exacerbated by already depressed hopes.

One client is putting up a third of the take at the Christie's wine auction this weekend. A total of 613 lots are available, with one party accounting for than 200 of them. This seller is described only as a "wealthy New York family" (duh). For collectors, according to the auction house's spin, this is a great time to buy. Prices are falling, which means that there are plenty of bargains out there.

Apparently, there's some wisdom to this perspective. At the Sotheby's auction last weekend, bidders dropped more than $2.9 million on vino, thrashing a pre-auction estimate of only $1.8 million to $2.6 million. New buyers are coming into the market. At the Sotheby's auction, more than 20 percent of the bidders were new. Two weeks before that, Hart Davis Hart, of Chicago, moved nearly $2.7 million of liquid bliss, beating its presale mark of $2.4 million.

In a Reuters interview, wine consultant Judy Beardsall likens wine collecting and investing to gardening, "At a time like this, it's a chance to turn over the soil in the garden, put down some stock for the next generation."

But, if you aren't interested in waiting, all the wines put up for auction are fit for consumption ... for a price.