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Art Market Confidence Is Up, Sales Come Next

Filed under: Art

The hint of a recovery we got in the first half of 2009 has fallen off a bit,according to Art Price's Art Market Confidence Index. The latest report suggests that art prices have dropped 37 percent since January 1, 2008, when the art market first showed signs of weakness. But, there are some indications that it's headed in the right direction over all. Art Price does state that the third quarter is almost always weak. Only 12 percent of auction lots sold during all third quarters over the past decade, and low sales volumes tend to mean low prices.

The art market appears to have hit its worst point in the first quarter of this year, when art prices were down 38 percent over the previous 15 months. Values plunged to 2004 levels, and spectators figured that conditions would only get worse. Prices edged up 1.2 percent after the first quarter, but a slow summer didn't yield any real progress.

Art Price sees the November results as promising, with seasonally adjusted growth for the Post-War period up 2.1 percent since March and the Old Masters picking up 4.5 percent. And, for the past two quarters, only 38 percent of lots failed to sell, and it looks like October and November will stay consistent with that result.

More than anything else, the numbers suggest that confidence is increasing -- which is the first step in a recovery.

Is The Art Market About To Take A Dive?

Filed under: Auctions, Art

This week delivers another set of economic indicators in the form of the prices earned in the big sales at Sotheby's and Christie's in New York. The next few weeks bring us the sales in Impressionist, modern, postwar and contemporary art at the competing houses. Many will be watching these auctions as an indicator to see if the art market, which has been booming over the last couple years, is headed for a fall. These are the first big art sales since the sales that take place in May each year. Traditionally the May sales are larger. The Financial Times mentions that collectors could spend up to $2 billion in the sales, an amount almost three times above the level reached just two years ago.

The art market tends not to fall all at once. Generally it's the new kids, the contemporary art, which loses value first. This art is often beloved by younger collectors, the Wall Street guys looking for something trendy and hot. Jeff Koons, whose heart is shown at right and Damien Hirst are two who have commanded huge prices recently (Hirst is currently the world's most expensive living artist). The Impressionist and modern artists, the Monets and Picassos of the world won't be plummeting in value any time soon.

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