November 2008 was pure living hell for the art auction houses. The bottom had just fallen out of the market ... and they were still saddled with pieces for which they'd offer guaranteed minimums. This is exactly what happened with Roy Lichtenstein's "Half Face with Collar."

The 48 square inch painting went under the gavel at Sotheby's almost a year ago, with the seller, Italian art dealer and collector Gian Enzo Sperone, protected by a $15 million minimum by the house. Now, it's on display at FIAC, right next to Andy Warhol's "Green Disaster," in the Projet Moderne section.

For many, the question of who owns the Lichtenstein painting has been raised. Is the fact that it's hanging as an entry from the Gagosian Gallery meaningful? A source at FIAC tells Bloomberg News that it is: "Larry owns it and it's definitely for sale."

It would be poetic, of course, for the piece to fetch the $15 million it failed to reach last November, but for now, all we can do is wait for the result (if any).

The big numbers and grand auction centers around the world remain under pressure, but small local art scenes are finding ways to thrive. Like the small cap stocks that lead financial markets out of a recession, maybe it's the emerging artist and local art scene that will deliver us from this slump.

Grand Rapids hosted ArtPrize, a new art show this year, and it was so successful that the organizers are going to do it again in 2010. Businesses in town got a bump, and Grand Rapids was able to boost its cred as an art destination. The 18-day competition commenced on September 23, 2009 and drew tens of thousands of visitors to the Michigan city. Some restaurants ran out of food, because they weren't expecting such a large influx of guests. Doug Small, president of the Grand Rapids/Kent County Convention and Visitors Bureau, told The Associated Press, "Nobody had any clue this would happen."

The competition attracted 1,262 entries, varying in size, shape, style and medium. They were displayed in lobbies, on bridges, in parking lots and in the Grand River -- anywhere in town where they could find a place to exhibit. The winners were chosen by the voting public, using the event's website and text messaging, with 37,264 people participating.

The winner was Ryan Ortner of Brooklyn, New York, with the oil painting "Open Water No. 24, measuring 19 feet wide, taking first place, with Tracy Van Duinen taking second and Eric Daigh coming in third. Ortner lent his painting to the Grand Rapids Art Museum, which is going to display it until January.

Collectors are looking and thinking. They might take action, but it's still too soon to tell. The action at Foire Internationale d'Art Contemporain (FIAC) in Paris is deliberate: nobody's rushing to put their cash on the table. However, there are signs that some pricey and prestigious pieces may sell.

Last week, a painting by Piet Mondrian was put on reserve, at a price between $30 million and $40 million. One of Pablo Picasso's works was reserved, as well, at $24 million. Back in the art boom, these pieces would have been snapped up already, but dealers are saying that it's taking longer to complete sales at FIAC this year than last year. Even billionaires need convincing in this market, it seems.

Also, there's a greater desire to stay under the radar. Whether it's to maintain some privacy or hide the fact that they have the means to spend more than they like, some owners and buyers are turning to private sales. Bargains, thus, won't make it into the public record – sparing sellers the embarrassment and preventing the other holdings of all collectors from sustaining a measurable decline in value. If premiums are paid, buyers won't have to reveal that they have the cash to pay more, preventing prices from increasing broadly.

The three major auction houses were upbeat at the Frieze Art Fair and seem to think an art market recovery is in the works. ArtInfo reports that Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips de Pury came out of the event feeling positive about the market's direction – even if it is tempered with a dose of reality. The number of pieces sold and the prices at which they moved were still pretty far from what they were in the pre-Lehman days. For now, though, collectors need to think about the early stages of recovery, not hope for a return to the glory days of 2007.

The auction houses did fairly well, though estimates tend to be far lower than a year ago. Damien Hirst's Wallace Collection moved well, with "Two Skulls" selling for $705,244, far more than its presale estimate. Emerging artists had moments in the sun, as well, particularly Hurvin Anderson's "Untitled (Beach Scene)," which sold for $158,304 – more than three times its presale estimate. Farhad Moshiri's "Cowboy and Indian" more than doubled its presale estimate, with a price of $548,976. In general, the auctions posted sufficient results, the first step in a market turn. Sotheby's and Christie's pierced the $20 million mark in recent contemporary auctions, and Phillips de Pury moved 31 of 43 lots to reach $6.7 million in a recent contemporary auction.

Now that the art market is moving from Frieze to FIAC and into the busy fall auction season, we'll get a sense of what 2010 will look like ... and if the market is finally picking up the momentum we all want it to show. The last art market slump, from 1990 to 1992, didn't bring an immediate resolution, with prices not returning to normal until 1995. So, brace yourselves for a slow recovery (or treat it as bargain season!).

The big money's in Paris this season. Last night, a $24 million painting by Pablo Picasso of his mistress, Marie-Therese Walter, was put on reserve at the VIP preview of the Foire Internationale d'Art Contemporain. The FIAC is France's largest art fair, and it follows the Frieze Art Fair in London. The French fair hopes to capitalize on Frieze's momentum, where dealers indicated that sales were up from 2008.

Picasso isn't the only major artist whose work is up for sale at a major price. L+M Arts, from New York, has put Francis Bacon's "Portrait of George Dyer Takling," which is being priced at approximately $40 million, and Fernand Leger's "Le Grand Dejeurner" is being shown by Daniel Malingue for $20 million to $25 million. The fair is already well attended, with Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, and his ilk already in attendance.

FIAC ends on October 25, 2009 and has more than 200 modern and contemporary art dealers showcasing the work they represent. Most of the exhibits are in the Grand Palais, with another 80 by younger living artists displayed in a temporary structure in the Cour Carree of the Louvre. The art market slump has led to smaller numbers this year, with 40 galleries that participated last year not returning to Paris this year.

It's still possible to set a record in this art market; it just takes an amazing lot from a far-off period in time. On December 8, 2009, a drawing by Italian renaissance artist Raphael will go under the gavel. The piece is expected to pull in a world record $19.7 million. The 12-inch drawing (in black chalk) will be auctioned by Christie's at its Old Masters auction. It was a study used for a muse in Raphael's fresco of Parnassus, which is in the Stanza della Segnatura in the Vatican. This is the highest quality piece by Raphael to come to auction since the 1980s.

Christie's is selling the Raphael drawing on behalf of an anonymous private collector, though it's been owned in the past by Sir Thomas Lawrence and King William II of Holland. It hasn't shown up at auction in more than 150 years. The history associated with this piece, as well as the piece itself, are what make it a threat to the record of 8.1 million pounds paid for the drawings "The Risen Christ" (Michelangelo) and Leonardo da Vinci's "Horse and Rider." They sold in July 2000 and July 2001, respectively.

The drawing was completed between 1508 and 1511 at the request of Pope Julius the II. The artist died in 1520 at the age of 37.

The sale will feature other major works including a masterpiece by Rembrandt, shown at right. Unseen in public for almost 40 years and offered at auction for the first time since 1930, Portrait of a man, half-length, with his arms akimbo, 1658, is offered from a distinguished private collection and is expected to bring in £18 million to £25 million. One of the most significant Old Masters to be offered in recent years. Saint John the Evangelist by Domenico Zampieri, called Il Domenichino (1581-1641), will be presented for sale for the first time in over 100 years. It is expected to sell for £7 million to £10 million.

Don't call it a comeback ... well, because the bar's been lowered. At the post-war and contemporary art sales last Friday, both Christie's and Sotheby's nearly hit the high end of presale estimates. This marks a distinct turn from earlier this year, when the auction houses couldn't even reach the lowest ends of reduced expectations. Any comparison to last year is made difficult by the fact that both houses combined their auctions with Italian art sales. So, they open with "close to the top end of the range" and can't really be evaluated on anything else.

Values for the pieces are off -- that's pretty well known (especially to anyone trying to sell right now). Sotheby's brought in $32.8 million at the sale -- which also had Arab and Iranian art on top of the contemporary and Italian lots. Christie's picked up $27.7 million, with more U.S. buyers than expected.

We're again seeing an engineered reality that's driven by performance relative to presale estimates -- this is all the hint we nee to know that the art market is still pretty far from recovery. But, as we know, it could have been much worse. Hell, we saw how bad it could be for most of this year.

Christie's International moved $18.3 million in art at its contemporary London auction on Friday. Three pieces sold for more than $1.6 million (including fees), with the top price going for a piece by Martin Kippenberger ($3.76 million); a phone bidder acquired it. Of the 25 lots offered at the art auction, which coincided with the Frieze Art Fair, 24 sold. Half the lots went to bidders from North America.

The equivalent auction held by Christie's last year consisted of 47 lots and brought in revenue of $52 million. But, it missed the low-end estimate of $95 million by a mile. At that auction, 45 percent of the lots didn't sell.

The seemingly better performance this year may provide a warm feeling to a market that's been battered for a while, but it should be balanced against the fact that expectations were much lower than last year, a trend that has developed throughout the art market slump.

Other impressive results include $1.46 million for "Signal Box" by Neo Rauch, $1.57 million for Jean-Michel Basquiat's "Fuego Flores" and $886,000 for Damien Hirst's "Retribution."

The Frieze Art Fair is drawing the right kind of people this year, even if the art market is showing little more than hope (and even that's debatable). Roman Abramovich - billionaire, Francis Bacon fan - has been seen scoping out the merchandise. Gwyneth Paltrow is at the show, too. Both were at the VIP preview (separately), and David Ganek made an appearance as well. Ganek is a hedge fund manager and art collector, and his wife, Danielle wrote a god-awful novel about the art business in Manhattan.

The Frieze Art Fair runs through October 18 and occupies 70,000 square feet in Regent's Park. In attendance are 165 gallery owners from 30 countries, all eager to take advantage of collectors excited to be at Europe's largest art fair. But, they have their work cut out for them. Auction sales are down between 70 percent and 80 percent from last year, and that's usually a pretty good sign of how the art market as a whole is doing.

There is some action at Frieze this year. Artist Jim Hodges has an exhibition at the Pompidou Center in Paris that's captured the attention of a museum. Stefan Edlis, Jean Pigozzi and David Roberts - all prominent collectors - have been seen at the fair. Art dealer Marianne Boesky moved 13 paintings from a new series of 15 watercolors by Barnaby Furnas that depict the capture and execution of John Brown, the Civil War abolitionist. Prices ranged from $25,000 to $30,000.

After the dismal situation at Frieze in 2008, there's a collective desire for this year to be better. While wishing for an art market recovery probably won't make a difference, the sentiment itself is comforting.

Last year, the Russians were buying art just as fast as they could. Now, they're doing the same thing in reverse. Sotheby's and Christie's are bringing $31 million in Russian art to market, thanks to a global recession that has left the country's many billionaires financially crippled and in desperate need of liquidity.

Christie's is hoping to rake in $21.6 million from today's Russian art auction, which includes a porcelain dinner set owned by once-heir to the throne Grand Duke Paul. Sotheby's has approximately $9 million in Russian art, which it plans to send under the gavel on November 2.

If art and economic never intersected, we could just enjoy the aesthetic and be done with it. But, reality forces its way in – especially with the Russian economy 10 percent smaller than it was a year ago. And, the number of Russian billionaires has plummeted from 110 in 2008 to 35 now. Wealthy Russians and Ukrainians, according to William MacDougall, co-director of MacDougall's in London, are responsible for more than 90 percent of the market for Russian art.

So, expect the selling prices to suck, frankly. Even with some strong lots – Alexis de Tiesenhausen, director of Russian art for Christie's calls this auction unique in terms of "quality and historical significance" – the target market is selling rather than buying. The Christie's auction consists of 550 lots. The Sotheby's auction will have 122 – including paintins by Natalia Goncharova and Konstantin Korovin.

Estimates are much lower than they were in 2008, because of supply at auction, the drop in the art market and the absence of buyers in the target market.

While many of the art auction houses are dreading the fall season, Sotheby's has a few lots to celebrate. Art advisors can't keep their mouths shut, it seems, and following a luncheon for them, word got out that the house has picked up pieces by Alberto Giacometti and Andy Warhol next month.

Most collectors have been hanging onto their art, unwilling to sell their pieces in an unfavorable economic climate. Instead, they're hoping for a recovery and will likely unload the good stuff when they can get top dollar – or at least something better than fire-sale prices. So, it's pretty astounding that Sotheby's was able to nab such high-powered pieces when the rest of the world is scraping for decent. If it was looking for a differentiator this season, it got one.

The sculpture by Giacometti, "L'homme qui chavire," will go under the gavel on November 4, 2009 and is estimated at $8 million to $12 million. A similar piece by the same artist sold at Christie's New York in May 2007 for $18.5 million, after having been estimated at $6.5 million to $8.5 million. But, that was 2007 ... a different time, for sure.

The seller is publishing business stud S.I. Newhouse, Jr., who is thought to have acquired the piece in a private transaction. Maybe the Conde Nast superstar should have unloaded it sooner and sunk the cash into the magazines he had to close.

The Frieze Art Fair previews in less than a week, and London's art market players are looking to make a splash. While it's unlikely that the prestigious and well-attended event will single-handedly undo 12 months of carnage, hopes are high that it will be a turning point. Frieze is the largest art fair in Europe that's dedicated to the contemporary space.

The preview will be held on October 14, 2009, and 165 galleries will be courting the wealthy collectors expected to be in attendance – up from 151 galleries in 2008. Twenty-eight art galleries left from last year, so Frieze had to find a considerable number of new participants to make up the difference and then come out ahead.

The fair is coming on the heels of a year in which auction sales are down 70 percent to 80 percent and prices for works by many major artists are down by half.

In one of the grandest gestures the market has seen since the slump began, Gerard Faggionato, a dealer from London, will be putting Francis Bacon's "Study from the Human Body after Muybridge" up for sale at a price of $9 million. This isn't exactly what Bacon's work used to fetch, but it's still a steep price in a depressed market. Faggionato represents Bacon's estate, which is the seller.

The painting shown at right, Bacon's ' Study for the Portrait of Michel Leiris ' is being shown as part of the exhibition 'Caravaggio and Bacon' at the Borghese museum in Rome.

The news out of Hong Kong has been solid so far, even if it continues the trend of meeting or beating lowered expectations. After a year of abuse, I think art collectors, gallerists and the artists themselves are eager for any good news they can claim. September was rough, according to ArtPrice, "with no room for over-bidding or risk-taking." There was only one contemporary artist, Andy Warhol, who has met expectations, so far.

But, there's room for hope: Jitish Kallah.

Kallah's only 35 years old. Born in Bombay, his work has been described by ArtPrice as "crisis-immune." The market for contemporary Indian art has been in a hard way, with the Christie's South Asian Modern & Contemporary auction last month bringing in only $5.1 million in sales – where the presale estimate was $5.6 million. Yet, Kallah's work set a new record, with "Dawn Chorus – 7" going for $320,000 and beating its high-end estimate by a factor of three.

Meanwhile, Warhol continues to deliver. A piece from his "Flower" series in 1964 went for $895,000 at Christie's in late September and a "Cambell's Soup Can (Tomato Soup)" fetched $310,000 a day later at Sotheby's.

So, we have fear and hope in October. This week, both Sotheby's and Christie's will hold auctions in the photography segment, with Phillips de Pury following next week. And, there are London sales coinciding with the Frieze Art Fair.

Let's see if art collectors are ready to dress their walls again.

What a difference a year makes!

Buyers brought their wallets to the Sotheby's auction in Hong Kong Monday, shelling out plenty of cash for pieces by Chinese masters. Sanyu's "Lotus et Poissons Rouge" fetched $4.7 million – beating the presale estimate soundly. But, the price was still considered low for Sanyu. In fact, the success of the auction is tainted by the fact that estimates aren't reflective of past sales levels. A painting by abstract artist Zao Wou-ki pulled in $2 million for the house.

Of course, there was plenty of optimism, fostered by both the performance relative to estimates and a burning desire to be out of the art market slump. Hua Yuzhou, who owns a gallery in Shanghai, says in Bloomberg News, "Give it a few months and these pieces may run beyond our reach again."

Hong Kong will come to life with the sound of a gavel on Tuesday, October 6, 2009. Sotheby's will be holding its Modern and Contemporary Asian Art auction, which will consist of three sessions: 20th Century Chinese Art, Modern and Contemporary Southeast Asian Paintings and Contemporary Asian Art. More than 380 works by Asian artists will come to auction, and the house expects close to $25 million in sales. Beyond bringing some new cash into Sotheby's, the auction is likely to give a sign as to the strength of the market, particularly with the November sales following shortly. Christie's will be holding its Hong Kong auctions on November 29 and 30.

In a sense, this is the one-year point for the art auction market. It was a year ago – in Hong Kong – that the world saw the effects of the financial crisis unfold in the art market. So, this bit of trivia will be front-of-mind as bidders make tough decisions on which pieces to acquire.

Sotheby's is betting big on the Contemporary Asian Art category, hoping that 190 lots will bring in $12.5 million in sales. High-profile artists are represented, including Guogiang Cai, Minjn Yue and Zhengjie Feng. There will be 130 lots in the Modern and Contemporary Southeast Asian Paintings auction, including I Nyoman Masriadi's The man from Bantul, The Monster, which is estimated at $100,000. The 20th Century Chinese Art category has a mix of safe and speculative pieces.