OldMasters

It looks like Christie's agrees with me (or, I agree with Christie's): the art market is going to recover this year. The auction house, which is bringing some powerful inventory under the gavel at its contemporary art sale next month, expects the market to recover this year. With the improvement in conditions, price guarantees may return, as well.

In 2009, Christie's states, sales fell to 2.1 billion pounds, a decline of 24%. For the contemporary category, which was hit worst by the art market slump, sales dropped 59% to 244.3 million pounds -- in 2007, it only took a handful of pieces to get up to this amount.

According to Edward Dolman, chief executive of Christie's, "These figures were much better than we expected." He observed to Bloomberg News, "The art market is vulnerable and we thought we'd be down 50 percent, as we were in the last recession in 1991." Christie's, along with the other major house, Sotheby's, were able to compensate for weakness in contemporary art with sales of Old Masters, wine and jewelry. Also, performance in Asia contributed to the salvaging of 2009, where average selling rates by lot gained 5% to 80% in 2009.

The Old Masters group gained 1% last year, one of only four categories to show an up-tick in 2009. The best performer, however, was the 20th Century Decorative Arts category, which posted a 149% increase, helped along by the 21.9 million euros paid for an Eileen Gray chair at the record-setting Yves Saint Laurent sale.

Christie's will offer the largest Old Master painting ever to be put up for sale in the auction house's illustrious history in its Old Master & 19th Century Paintings, Drawings, & Watercolors event in New York on Jan. 27. Le Pont Sur Le Torrent, painted in the mid-1780s by Hubert Robert, measures over 20 feet wide by 13 feet high, and carries an estimate of $2 million - $3 million. Originally commissioned by the Duc de Luynes for the dining room of his mansion in Paris, in 1925 it was acquired at auction by William Randolph Hearst and once decorated the beachfront castle that the newspaper baron purchased in late 1927 in Sands Point, Long Island as a retreat for his wife Millicent. The awe-inspiring artwork has not been seen in public in more than 50 years.

Christie's and Sotheby's aren't being shy with the Old Masters. Pieces by Rembrandt, Raphael and Van Dyck are being offered at hefty prices, some records, that could bring in up to $133 million. If this happens, art collectors will have doubled last year's result ... and cast a strong vote in favor of an art market recovery.

The Christie's sale on Tuesday will include a portrait by Rembrandt and a sketch by Raphael. They are being estimated at 18 million pounds and 12 million pounds, respectively. According to Christie's, these are the highest estimates seen at auction, says Bloomberg News. The Sotheby's sale occurs on Tuesday, featuring a Van Dyck portrait that could fetch as much as 3 million pounds.

Unlike the volatile market for contemporary art, prices for the Old Masters have been relatively stable, as the supply is diminishing and demand is increasing.

According to Johnny van Haeften, an art dealer based in London, told Bloomberg News, "Prices at auction are very strong because there isn't much out there." He continues, "People don't want to sell at the moment. They're saying, 'If I let a painting go, where do I put the money? I'd rather keep it in a work of art.'" He bid unsuccessfully for two still life pieces by 17th century Dutch painter Adriaen Coorte. Both ultimately sold for more than 10 times their high-end presale estimates.

[Photo via Christie's]

The hint of a recovery we got in the first half of 2009 has fallen off a bit,according to Art Price's Art Market Confidence Index. The latest report suggests that art prices have dropped 37 percent since January 1, 2008, when the art market first showed signs of weakness. But, there are some indications that it's headed in the right direction over all. Art Price does state that the third quarter is almost always weak. Only 12 percent of auction lots sold during all third quarters over the past decade, and low sales volumes tend to mean low prices.

The art market appears to have hit its worst point in the first quarter of this year, when art prices were down 38 percent over the previous 15 months. Values plunged to 2004 levels, and spectators figured that conditions would only get worse. Prices edged up 1.2 percent after the first quarter, but a slow summer didn't yield any real progress.

Art Price sees the November results as promising, with seasonally adjusted growth for the Post-War period up 2.1 percent since March and the Old Masters picking up 4.5 percent. And, for the past two quarters, only 38 percent of lots failed to sell, and it looks like October and November will stay consistent with that result.

More than anything else, the numbers suggest that confidence is increasing -- which is the first step in a recovery.

Combined, Sotheby's and Christie's moved £39 million ($63.25 million) in art from the Old Masters & 19th Century category at the beginning of July. Though it's still nothing compared to the levels reached the year before, it was good enough to top the Contemporary Art auction performances at those houses the month before. Collectors, together, cast a £1 million vote for age over beauty, a stunning development in an art market that has become accustomed to emphasizing the value of twentieth century pieces.

The rise in older works is akin to a flight to quality in financial markets, as the rarer, more reliable pieces have substantial track records and are less likely to fall victim to changes in taste. Speculation isn't as rampant in the Old Masters as it is for contemporary works: the market is a known quantity, with room for very few "discoveries," while there are still many twentieth century artists among us ... some of whom are even deigning to create their own paintings.

The success of the Old Masters category last month is due in part to the availability of inventory. Sotheby's was fortunate enough to be chosen for the Barbara Piasecka Johnson collection, which brought in more than £5 million. Christie's saw three new records set, though the house didn't keep pace with rival Sotheby's, despite sending more lots under the gavel.

The mood in the Hamptons has been affected by real estate prices, plunging bonuses and – of course – the ongoing art market slump. But, the collectors gathering at ArtHamptons are trying to keep stiff upper lips. Rick Friedman, its founder and executive director, is saying that now is the best time to enter the art market, with low prices building in an inherently greater upside. And, there's no doubt. If you have the cash to put into the art market – and the inclination to invest in this asset class – now is the time to do it.

The major constraint on the art market isn't the notion that it's a bad time to invest. Any fairly serious art collector can see that this is the time to make a move. Like any other "discount," you can't take advantage of it if you don't have the price of admission. You might be able to pick up the Old Masters for a relative song right now, but if your bonus got slashed this year, the opportunity may not be possible.

So, what's moving at ArtHamptons this year?

Jane Wilson, who one a Lifetime Achievement Award this year, has seen some success, along with Elliott Erwitt, Lillion Bassman and other artists who lean toward decorative pieces. For some, the year's even been positive, with gallery director Joseph Newman calling the first quarter of this year the best he's had. Trompe l'oeil is working well, too. Interested in buying a Madoff joke for $13,500? You can do it with Eric Forstmann's Made Off with the Bail Out Package.

Meanwhile, soft porn is moving ... so, at least someone is making money on the skin business (the hardcore guys sure aren't). Suggestive images have always packed a bit of a thrill, and pieces that ply the flesh are doing well out in the Hamptons this year. Boyarde Messenger's Frilly in Yellow ($3,350) and Changing Rooms III moved for almost three times that amount.

The feel is somewhat upbeat at ArtHamptons this year, but the action is definitely taking place in the emerging artist space. Nonetheless, there are some big ticket items up for sale. At Vered Gallery's booth, you'll find a Picasso, Chagall, de Kooning and Rauschenberg – not to mention a 1984 portrait of Michael Jackson by Andy Warhol. If you're liquid, now's the time to enter the market!

The latest London market art auction was good for $32.7 million last night, as Christie's International moved lots from its Old Masters & 19th Century art category. The works ranged from late 14th century to late 19th century, with this newly created broad category intended to push "crossover" buying (from different periods) among collectors. Christie's is already celebrating the effectiveness of this plain, even though sales continue to be well below 2008 levels.

Sixty-three lots came under the gavel at the Christie's auction, and the house did hit its low estimate of $25 million. Only 24 percent of the lots were not purchased. Last year at this time, the same auction generated close to $50 million on 48 lots. And, the July 2007 Christie's Old Masters auction was good for around $80 million on 91 paintings. The two top paintings this year sold for below their estimates.

Despite Christie's self-proclaimed success for the Old Masters & 19th Century Art category, dealers aren't sold on it. A few claimed that the later work detracted from the pieces created earlier in this broad period.

The next sale comes today, as Sotheby's moves 200 pieces that currently belong to Johnson & Johnson heiress Barbara Piasecka Johnson. The auction is expected to yield $9.2 million in sales.