Impressionists

June auction revenues were off 70 percent in London this year, due in large part to job cuts and an unwillingness to guarantee lots. Even the occasional sign of hope had to be taken with a grain of salt, as lower expectations tended to magnify this year's results falsely.

Together, Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips de Pury pulled in $269.4 million in this summer's sales – off 70 percent from a year ago. In addition to the mechanical drivers of lost jobs and guarantees, the auction houses haven't had an easy time bringing high-profile, high-value pieces to market. Every event in London this summer unloaded at least two-thirds of its inventory, and success rates rose to above 88 percent at the Sotheby's and Christie's events this past June, but lingering in the background is the notion that 2009, at this point, is nothing like 2008.

To some, the current art slump is reminiscent of the early 1990s, in which a bubble in Impressionist art pricing precipitated a general decline, and nobody could get a realistic sense of a piece's value. The market took several years to recover, but it has since passed the levels of nearly 20 years ago. The Impressionists are down 68 percent this year, roughly in line with global trends, with the contemporary market off approximately 73 percent. New York fared no better than London, with contemporary sales at Sotheby's down 75 percent and Christies off 72 percent.

Paintings by Claude Monet and Pablo Picasso may have sold for $20 million, but the overall take of $61 million was off 74 percent from last year's Christie's Impressionist art auction. Forty-four lots came under the gavel last night with results good enough to beat the minimum estimate by ₤250,000 ($400,000) ... but you have to remember that the low end of the estimate is already low-balled. Even though expectations were roughly met, it was a tough night in London.

Last year, 81 lots fetched more than $250 million, close to $100 million of which came from Monet's "Le Bassin aux Nympheas." Monet was among the stars at Christie's this year, too, but at a fraction of the amount. As expected, the number of high-profile pieces coming to auction is down because the auction houses are no longer guaranteeing minimum prices.

Only 68 percent of the lots brought under the gavel moved this year mostly in the range of $450,000 to $900,000. In this "middle market," a third of the lots failed to sell, and only two were able to beat their high estimates. Usually, Christie's is able to hit a sale rate of 80 percent for this sector.

So, what does this art auction teach collectors across the market? Hitting low estimates is no sign of recovery. Lower standards that are barely met is far from an upswing. Managing expectations is far from art market managing returns.

Paul Gauguin's lovely "Deux Femmes''  sold for 11 million pounds ($19.2 million) at Sotheby's London. The painting was the most expensive lot in the Impressionist sale. The Gauguin went to a telephone bidder. The auction also included eight paintings from Edvard Munch which sold for a total of 16.9 million pounds, including commission. Joan Miro's gold-and-blue picture of a bird under a sickle-shaped moon was the number two lot at  4.6 million pounds. The prices seems to indicate that the Impressionist market is continuing to thrive. Bloomberg notes that European impressionists including Gauguin gained 17 percent last year, while contemporary art rose 13.8 percent.