FrancisBacon

It looks like art market watchers (including me) were right for the wrong reasons. At the Sotheby's contemporary art auction last night, $84.5 million in sales were completed, but the highly coveted Lucian Freud didn't hit its low estimate. Lucio Fontana, Yves Klein, Willem de Kooning, Peter Doig and Frank Auerbach, however, led to pitched bidding battles.

The evening's highest price was paid for de Kooning's "Untitled XIV," which fetched 4 million pounds over the phone, beating its high-end estimate by a third. The seller was a collector from Europe who picked up the painting from the artist's estate. Doig's "Saint Anton (Flat Light)," an Alpine scene, was good for 2.8 million, also via phone.

But, Lucian Freud still stole the spotlight, if not the top bid. His self-portrait with a black eye carried a low-end presale estimate of 2.8 million – after having been offered at a lower price in private sale before the auction. The seller, Victor Chandler, is a bookmaker based in Gibraltar with a penchant for secrecy: his press officer refused to be named (according to Bloomberg News).

The Lenz collection, also high-profile, performed very well at Sotheby's. Only one of the 47 lots wasn't able to move, and the entire collection sold for 23.2 million pounds, soundly beating a presale estimate of 11.2 million pounds to 15.2 million pounds. The most expensive piece was Klein's "Fire" painting "F 88," which brought in 3.3 million pounds, just shy of its high estimate of 3.5 million.

The evening's surprise came from Auerbach, who's 1956 drawing was purchased by London art dealer Offer Waterman for 1 million pounds, far above the presale estimate of 50,000 pounds to 80,000 pounds. Interestingly, Sotheby's senior international specialist Oliver Barker noted to Bloomberg News, "The gap between Auerbach and Freud and Bacon is closing." Are we seeing a new evolution in the Francis Bacon supply chain?

Overall, the contemporary art auction beat its high-end presale estimate of 45 million pounds and thrashed the 2009 result for the same auction, a mere 17.9 million pounds for 27 lots.

What does 2010 have in store for the art market? Well, it's starting to look like this is the year the market will finally (begin to) recover, though there could be some trepidation at points. Better pieces are coming under the gavel, and serious collectors are interested in artists with real track records. As things loosen up, emerging artists and those just past that stage (think Ben Krell for the former and Nelson Diaz for the latter) will start to see better conditions, as the logjam in the auction houses, once broken, should ease the pressure on galleries and also lead to some progress in private sales. Basically, the return of liquidity to the art market will be better for everyone.

Almost everyone.

This year, some artists won't enjoy as much of the recovery (if it happens ... just to hedge our bets) as others. Their prices were run up too quickly, making the subsequent fall severe. These artists, auction darlings who don't have the history or potency of a Lucian Freud or even a Richard Prince. Yet, they shot out of the emerging artist category years ago. In 2010, these artists, including Damien Hirst and Jeff Koons, will occupy something of a purgatory, as the art market resets values through upward bidding, now that the decks have been washed clean.

Collectors are looking and thinking. They might take action, but it's still too soon to tell. The action at Foire Internationale d'Art Contemporain (FIAC) in Paris is deliberate: nobody's rushing to put their cash on the table. However, there are signs that some pricey and prestigious pieces may sell.

Last week, a painting by Piet Mondrian was put on reserve, at a price between $30 million and $40 million. One of Pablo Picasso's works was reserved, as well, at $24 million. Back in the art boom, these pieces would have been snapped up already, but dealers are saying that it's taking longer to complete sales at FIAC this year than last year. Even billionaires need convincing in this market, it seems.

Also, there's a greater desire to stay under the radar. Whether it's to maintain some privacy or hide the fact that they have the means to spend more than they like, some owners and buyers are turning to private sales. Bargains, thus, won't make it into the public record – sparing sellers the embarrassment and preventing the other holdings of all collectors from sustaining a measurable decline in value. If premiums are paid, buyers won't have to reveal that they have the cash to pay more, preventing prices from increasing broadly.

The big money's in Paris this season. Last night, a $24 million painting by Pablo Picasso of his mistress, Marie-Therese Walter, was put on reserve at the VIP preview of the Foire Internationale d'Art Contemporain. The FIAC is France's largest art fair, and it follows the Frieze Art Fair in London. The French fair hopes to capitalize on Frieze's momentum, where dealers indicated that sales were up from 2008.

Picasso isn't the only major artist whose work is up for sale at a major price. L+M Arts, from New York, has put Francis Bacon's "Portrait of George Dyer Takling," which is being priced at approximately $40 million, and Fernand Leger's "Le Grand Dejeurner" is being shown by Daniel Malingue for $20 million to $25 million. The fair is already well attended, with Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, and his ilk already in attendance.

FIAC ends on October 25, 2009 and has more than 200 modern and contemporary art dealers showcasing the work they represent. Most of the exhibits are in the Grand Palais, with another 80 by younger living artists displayed in a temporary structure in the Cour Carree of the Louvre. The art market slump has led to smaller numbers this year, with 40 galleries that participated last year not returning to Paris this year.

The Frieze Art Fair is drawing the right kind of people this year, even if the art market is showing little more than hope (and even that's debatable). Roman Abramovich - billionaire, Francis Bacon fan - has been seen scoping out the merchandise. Gwyneth Paltrow is at the show, too. Both were at the VIP preview (separately), and David Ganek made an appearance as well. Ganek is a hedge fund manager and art collector, and his wife, Danielle wrote a god-awful novel about the art business in Manhattan.

The Frieze Art Fair runs through October 18 and occupies 70,000 square feet in Regent's Park. In attendance are 165 gallery owners from 30 countries, all eager to take advantage of collectors excited to be at Europe's largest art fair. But, they have their work cut out for them. Auction sales are down between 70 percent and 80 percent from last year, and that's usually a pretty good sign of how the art market as a whole is doing.

There is some action at Frieze this year. Artist Jim Hodges has an exhibition at the Pompidou Center in Paris that's captured the attention of a museum. Stefan Edlis, Jean Pigozzi and David Roberts - all prominent collectors - have been seen at the fair. Art dealer Marianne Boesky moved 13 paintings from a new series of 15 watercolors by Barnaby Furnas that depict the capture and execution of John Brown, the Civil War abolitionist. Prices ranged from $25,000 to $30,000.

After the dismal situation at Frieze in 2008, there's a collective desire for this year to be better. While wishing for an art market recovery probably won't make a difference, the sentiment itself is comforting.

Last year, Vanity Fair's "New Establishment" list was hefty with art market players. This year, the magazine noted that the Wall Street folks and "big media" got their asses handed to them ... but a quick look shows that the arts got slammed, as well.

In 2008, the entire Francis Bacon supply chain showed up on the list. Bacon-inspired Damien Hirst (shown at right) filled the production link, with dealer Larry Gagosian moving Hirst's product and Roman Abramovich buying up not the Bacon-inspired but the works of the master himself. And, they wound up in some hefty positions. Hirst hit #31, with Gagosian close behind at #38. Of course, deep pockets win, which is how ol' Roman pierced the top 10 (at #8).

This year? Well, the Francis Bacon supply chain didn't fair as well. Abramovich was ignored completely, along with Gagosian. Hirst was tossed into the "Pit Stop," where he's joined by shark-loving hedge fund manager and art collector Steve Cohen, who sacrificed $750 million of his own wealth to the financial crisis.

While Cohen keeps the comings and goings of SAC Capital Advisors under wraps, we do know that Hirst had to layoff 20 employees. There's a silver lining, though. With Hirst having to do more of his own work, we probably won't have to see as much of it.

Reflecting the lower prices for contemporary art brought on by the recession, there are some relative bargains to be had at Christie's Post-War & Contemporary Art auction in London on June 30. Chief among them is Jean-Michel Basquiat's Red Skull (above), painted in 1982 and estimated at only $2.4 million - $3.2 million. Other potential steals include Richard Prince's Country Nurse, est. at $2.4 million - $3.2 million; Jeff Koons' Moustache, est. at $1.9 million- $2.8 million; Francis Bacon's Study for Portrait, est. at $1.2 million - $1.9 million; and Andy Warhol's Self-Portrait, est. at only $800,000 - $1.2 million. The results will no doubt be closely monitored by art world insiders.

If you can't make it to "Francis Bacon: A Centenary Retrospective" at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York this month you can still enjoy the great painter's works courtesy of art book imprint Skira Rizzoli. Francis Bacon, a comprehensive study of the seminal 20th-century painter (and oligarch favorite) "provides a radical reassessment of his major achievements and his enduring importance for the twenty-first century."

Bacon developed a way of portraying the human body that was unique in the history of painting - "usually in isolation, at moments of extreme tension or even pain, his figures distorted as if in a fantastical nightmare," as the authors note. In addition to 250 full-color plates, the book also reveals Bacon's inspirations, including magazine tear sheets, photographs, and imagery from films. The book, which will be published later this month, is currently available for pre-order on Amazon.

Art auction houses are looking to protect themselves. Lacking a local "enforcer" to find once eager collectors and shake them down for every last dollar, the likes of Sotheby's and Christie's will spend the coming fortnight managing expectations while trying to eke out a living. Atop the agenda this season is the notion of protecting price levels for Impressionist, modern and contemporary pieces.

Reality has struck.

Sotheby's has revealed a sales target of $179 million to $256 million for the spring. Last fall, the auction house hit $411 million – which is paltry compared to the $742 million take at this time last year. The showpiece now is "Baroque Egg with Bow," a sculpture by Jeff Koons, which carries a Sotheby's estimate of $6 million. While this sounds rich for today's market, the house almost quadrupled that amount with a sculpture from the same artist in 2007.

For those who haven't been keeping score, 2007 for the art world was like 1999 for technology people.

By reinforcing concern through modest estimates and carefully selected lots, the major (and smaller auction houses) are subtly positioning themselves for any unexpected support. A strong spring auction – as measured by current economic conditions – could cause global art market confidence to rebound. A turn for the worse, however, would be exacerbated by already depressed hopes.

It's no surprise that last year's art market looked nothing like that of 2007. Last year, the top 10 artists by sales racked up $1.7 billion and accounted for 20 percent of the global art market on 1.5 percent of transactions. This slip in the big revenue number is a lot different from 2007, in which the top 10 brought in $1.8 billion, a year-over-year gain of 50 percent, according to ArtPrice.

Andy Warhol was the problem last year.

The top artist of 2007 fell substantially last year. In 2008, only $236.7 million in Warhol sales occurred – compared to $420 million the year before. As a result, Warhol slid from the #1 spot to #3, and Picasso regained the apex. Francis Bacon moved from #3 to #2 on sales of $256 million. Unbelievable growth of 514 percent in his work from January 2005 to January 2008 turned abruptly, and the artist finished last year down 48 percent ... not that he'd give a tinker's damn about it.

Despite the economic challenges, the price of admission grew. Last year, sales in a particular artist at auction had to reach $91.8 million to hit the big time, up from $87 million in 2007, $59.6 million in 2006 and a comparatively paltry $33.7 million in 2005.

Take a look at the scorecard after the jump.

Once the undisputed land of conspicuous wealth and consumption, the United Arab Emirates is being squeezed by a large drop in oil prices. It's a shame this comes after the region's addiction to art has become fully entrenched. Sotheby's is planning its first contemporary art sale from its new Doha, Qatar branch on March 18, 2009 – also the opening day of the Art Dubai fair. Hell, it's enough to make you "scream" (see photo).

This looks like the triumph of ambition over common sense, but Sotheby's was probably too far into its Middle Eastern endeavors before the bottom fell out on the region's finances. And with Bonhams and Christie's already in town, Sotheby's had little choice but to follow.

The UAE has committed quickly to the art scene. Abu Dhabi is working on building a Louvre, and is erecting a Guggenheim. Last year, art auction revenues reached $34.9 million, up 70 percent from 2007. But, the upcoming auction should be tricky, particularly with the poor performance of the sector last fall in more established markets, like New York, London and Hong Kong.

In around two weeks, we'll see if Sotheby's will be able to make this new auction house work, or if it will fall victim to the greater recession-triggered decline in the art market. The Mei Moses All Art Index dropped 4.5 percent last year. This seems like a modest amount, but you need to remember that record-setting sales continued through the middle of the summer. Last May, Roman Abramovich was a billionaire with a new Francis Bacon piece in his collection. Today ... we know he feels pain, too. The second half of the year wiped out the first half's records and pulled prices down further.

It's a tough time to count on the market to make Sotheby's Doha a success, but the market doesn't give us choices.

[Photo: "El Grito" by Julio Aguilera]

The contemporary art market has hit such hard times that even eternal bankables like Francis Bacon are being affected; even a relatively cheap painting of his failed to sell at Sotheby's in December. Expect interest in the twisted Irish genius to revive when a massive centenary exhibition if his work opens in at NYC's Metropolitan Museum of Art in the spring, however. Meanwhile, you can sate yourself on a slew of new Bacon books just hitting shelves. For starters there's an English edition of a lavish catalog produced for an exhibition in Milan earlier this year, Francis Bacon: Anthology by Rudy Chiappini (above), which covers the whole of Bacon's oeuvre dating from the 1930s, as well as a revised edition of Michel Leiris' landmark monograph on the artist. Others focus on Bacon's portraits and his photography collection - but if you just want a nice buzz as opposed to an OD, we'd go with the Anthology.

This week's dismal art auction returns continued with the sale at Christie's New York on Wednesday night in which close to one third of the 75 lots found no buyers. The savvy shoppers were out in hordes though, Bloomberg reports that tennis star and collector John McEnroe, Salma Hayek and the ever art-hungry Eli Broad were in the room checking out the lots. The sale brought in $113.6 million which was around half its presale low estimate. Francis Bacon has been quite the hot seller of late, fueled to some extent by the buying habits of Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich. But last night a self-portrait by Francis Bacon that Christie's had estimated would sell for about $40 million couldn't find a new home.

And that collection of 16 drawings sold by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard S. Fuld Jr. and his wife, Kathy, brought in $13.5 million a bit below the low estimate of $15 million for the collection. More than half, a full 52 percent of the lots sold below the low estimate and Christie's guaranteed the sale of 39 lots, 12 of which didn't sell, which had a combined low estimate of $48 million. This means Christie's is on the hook for those works.

But every evening has its bright spots, Gerhard Richter's 1989 eight-foot-tall ``Abstraktes Bild (710),'' painted with a squeegee sold for $14.9 million. And you can't keep a good Basquiat down, Metallica drummer Lars Ulrich sold a 1982 Jean-Michel Basquiat painting ``Untitled (Boxer)'' for $13.5 million, above the $12 million estimate.

Christie's has announced it will offer one of the two Lucian Freud portraits of Francis Bacon in its Post-War and Contemporary Art auction in London this October. Pilar Ordovas, Christie's Head of Post-War and Contemporary art, calls it an "intimate portrait" that is a testament to the relationship between arguably the two "most important British artists of the 20th century."

The piece is estimated to reach bids of up to £7 million, though if last May's sale of Freud's Benefit Supervisor Sleeping is any indication, it might go for more -- that painting sold for $33 million.

Our friends at Kempt spotted Dasha Zhukova, Russian oligarch / Luxist mascot Roman Abramovich's gorgeous 27-year-old girlfriend, partying with supermodels and movie stars at an A-list art gallery opening in Moscow the other night. Zhukova (right) rubbed elbows with the likes of Russian supermodel Natalia Vodianova (left), sexy star of several ad campaigns, at the opening for megabucks art dealer Larry Gagosian in a former chocolate factory. As we reported recently, Abramovich has bankrolled a new Moscow art gallery for Zhukova, which will mount a major Francis Bacon exhibition in 2010. At the Gagosian show, works by the likes of Jeff Koons and Vuitton collaborator Takashi Murakami were on display.