Recent Comments:
Time for a Smoke: Frederique Constant Meets Cohiba {Luxist}
Aug 10th 2010 6:36PM Seriously, when fake (non Cuban ripoff) Cohiba is presented as exclusive then it's as bad for the brands involved as it possibly can be.
Predictions for 2007? {Engadget}
Jan 4th 2007 2:44AM Apple vs. Microsoft
Apple will increase market share but the growth will be because it can run Windows. Many users will use Windows at work and OS X at home. Most companies that dont standardize on one brand will allow their employees to buy Apple laptops and many will (mostly for the design, not the OS).
Apple and Microsoft will not agree on the market share they each will get. It simply becomes very hard to figure out and alternative methods for measuring will give very different results. The total is simply not 100% anymore. Many users will use both. We have seen similar arguments in the past between for example Microsoft and Oracle (lots of companies use both). I think Apple will steal revenue from hardware manufacturers, not from Microsoft.
Microsoft will continue to improve security and reliability (they have given it priority for a while now and have the resources to do it) and I also think OS X will experience some nasty viruses and security holes due to increased attention.
Time Machine will make more people start taking backups. Its just new wrapping but usability matters a lot.
Some but not a lot of users will upgrade to Vista. However, almost all new computers except from Apple will be sold with Vista installed and even a lot of Apple computers will get Vista installed. Vista will be in a strong position at the end of the year.
iPod has an extremely strong position and it will be very hard for Microsoft to challenge it in 2007. However, I think it is possible if Microsoft do "everything" right and adding at least one new killer feature. One killer feature would be a player that allows you to identify any music you hear anywhere and buy it with maximum two clicks (one click to identify and one to confirm the purchase). I believe Apple will launch a video iPod that will become popular.
iTV will become a big success among iTunes users. However, MCE on Vista will as well. It also works great when used with Xbox 360. I believe iTV must allow third party application support before it can become extremely popular.
I dont think Apple will allow a large amount of companies to use their DRM. This strategy is of course highly profitable if they are able to monopolize the market but I think it might backfire for several reasons.
I believe that Apple is far behind Microsoft when it comes tools, documentation and support for developers. Also, Microsoft is better at working with partners. I think Apple have to improve this before OS X can compete with Windows.
Linux will continue to be pretty successful for servers but not be any competitor to Windows or OS X for desktop computers. The main reason simply being that nobody owns it so nobody will standardize the GUI and make it consistent across all applications.
Microsoft will continue to copy Apple and Apple will continue to copy Microsoft. Apple will continue not to leak any information before they launch a new product. Microsoft will continue to release betas and information to developers months and sometimes years before a product is ready.
Apple will get more fanboys in 2007 and there will also be more anti Apple fanboys. Perhaps even Microsoft will get some fanboys in 2007. More people will use both OS X and Windows and many of them will discover that none of them are perfect and that they both have different advantages.
